Real-time data is essential for policymakers to adapt to a rapidly evolving situation like the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data from 221 countries and territories, we demonstrate the capacity of Google search data to anticipate reported COVID-19 cases and understand how containment policies are associated with changes in socioeconomic indicators. First, search interest in COVID-specific symptoms such as “loss of smell” strongly correlated with cases initially, but the association diminished as COVID-19 evolved; general terms such as “COVID symptoms” remained strongly associated with cases. Moreover, trends in search interest preceded trends in reported cases, particularly in the first year of the pandemic. Second, countries with more restrictive containment policies experienced greater search interest in unemployment and mental health terms after policies were implemented, indicating socio-economic externalities. Higher-income countries experienced a larger increase in searches related to unemployment and a larger reduction in relationship and family planning keywords relative to lower-income countries. The results demonstrate that real-time search interest can be a valuable tool to inform policies across multiple stages of the pandemic.

Abstract: Evidence from high-income countries suggests that judges often exhibit in-group bias, favoring litigants that share an identity with the judge. However, there is little evidence on this phenomenon from the Global South. Collecting the available universe of High Court decisions in Kenya, this paper leverages the random assignment of cases to judges to evaluate the existence of in-group bias along gender and ethnic lines. It finds that, relative to a baseline win rate of 43 percent, defendants are 4 percentage points more likely to win if they share the judge’s gender and 5 percentage points more likely to win if they share the judge’s ethnicity. The paper finds that the written judgements are on average shorter and less likely to be cited when defendants who are of the same gender or ethnicity as the judge win their case. This is consistent with in-group biased decisions being of lower quality. In addition, the findings show that female defendants are less likely to win the case if the judge exhibits stereotypical or negative attitudes towards women in their writings.